It’s officially rivalry weekend in college football, and the biggest game on the slate is No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan on FOX and the FOX Sports App!
Referred to as The Game by fans, this year’s matchup — like last year’s — has College Football Playoff (CFP) implications. The winner of this weekend’s showdown advances to face Iowa in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 2.
This will be the 119th all-time meeting between the two, with Michigan leading the series 60-52-6. Big Blue won last year 45-23.
Currently, UM is favored by 3.5 points and the Over/Under is 45.5.
Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day is 2-4 against top-five opponents in his head coaching career. Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh is 2-6 when facing top-five opponents as the Wolverines head coach (he’s 3-7 when including his tenure at Stanford).
As of Week 12, Buckeyes All-American wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of five Power 5 players with four or more receptions of 50-plus yards. Igniting Michigan’s offense is Blake Corum, the only FBS player to score in every game this season.
If you are looking for guidance on where to throw down a couple of bucks on Saturday’s Big Ten showdown, we have you covered with the help of our betting talent.
Our experts — Chris “The Bear” Fallica, Sammy Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz and Will Hill — are here to give you their best bets, predictions and insights for what will certainly be a competitive contest.
Let’s dive into their picks.
EXPERT PICKS
Insight from Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Maybe take the Over if it falls a couple more points
I grabbed Under 47.5 on Saturday night when I first got access to the look-ahead line, assuming that this thing was going to close around 44, 44.5. I’d like for it to come down a little bit more. That way I could buy a little bit back. Weather looks OK right now. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be super windy.
Sammy P’s Best Bet: Over 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
I know it’s gonna be very, very popular to go Under. Have you guys looked at the last five meetings? [The final scores were] 45-23, 42-27, 56-27, 62-39, 31-20, 30-27. Granted, what happened five years ago has nothing to do with what happens this weekend. But maybe this is the Marvin Harrison Jr. explosion game. Maybe Michigan still can run the ball well against a sort of weak Ohio State front seven.
Ohio State vs. Michigan: What is at stake for both teams?
Geoff Schwartz’ Best Bet: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
Even though this game has had high point totals over the last few iterations, I do not expect that this weekend.
Michigan’s outstanding defense has multiple future draft picks starting at all three levels. The Wolverines rank second in points per drive on defense, first in success rate, fifth in havoc rate and have not allowed more than 24 points all season. In fact, before Maryland scored 24 in Week 12, the Wolverines had not allowed more than 15 points in a game this season. Ohio State’s offense will easily be the best Michigan has seen this season, so it’s fair to assume the Wolverines defense might not thrive as well.
However, Ohio State’s offense is led by Kyle McCord, and he’s just average right now. There’s only been one game with this kind of heightened environment that the young signal-caller has played in, and that was way back in Week 4 at Notre Dame. In that contest, Ohio State scored 17 points. The Buckeyes scored only 20 against Penn State and 24 against Wisconsin. The Buckeyes’ game plan will include protecting McCord by running and safe throws.
But I think the same can be said about Michigan.
Michigan’s offense did not pass the ball the entire second half against Penn State, except one attempt where a pass interference was called. UM’s offensive line is that good, and it’s certainly fantastic that the Wolverines can operate an offense this way. However, it shows me they didn’t want quarterback J.J. McCarthy to screw it up with poor decisions.
There’s also a concern in pass protection with their tackles. Penn State’s pass rush was able to get home far too often. Ohio State has a pass rush that can do the same. The Buckeyes will need to stop the run to get off the field, but more run plays should help with the Under.
I’m taking the Under here.
Insight from Will Hill: Under 45.5; Lean Ohio State +3.5
There’s whispers J.J. McCarthy’s not 100 percent. By the same token, do you really want to trust Kyle McCord on the road in Michigan? I don’t know that I do. To me, it’s a 23-20 type of game. I think it’s a conservative game plan.
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