Friday, December 2, 2022

NFL odds Week 8: Aaron Rodgers a historic underdog, best betting trends

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Week 8 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit! 

Last week’s piece pointed out a few winners. Overall, seven favorites covered against the spread (ATS), and nine of them won straight up (SU). The New York Giants won as underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars and improved to 6-1 ATS (85.7%), the Kansas City Chiefs bounced back and covered against the San Francisco 49ers, and to everyone’s surprise, the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers both won SU as large underdogs.

As always, we did a deep dive into the data to identify the best trends for the upcoming week. We also looked at a ton of team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.

Let’s jump in and have some fun!

Herd Hierarchy: Bengals, Giants climb up in Colin’s Top 10 teams of Week 8

Kliff Kingsbury is dominant as a road underdog

We mentioned this trend earlier in the year, and we’re revisiting it because the numbers continue to be shocking. Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is a whopping 19-8-1 ATS (70.4%) and 17-11 SU (60.7%) on the road in the regular season during his head coaching career. Additionally, he’s 15-4-1 ATS (78.9%) and 13-7 SU (65%) as a road underdog and a perfect 8-0 ATS and SU in such situations over the last two seasons. 

Kyler Murray is also 13-4-1 ATS (82.4%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) as a starter as a road underdog in the regular season over his career. 

More data points towards the Cardinals covering, as the Vikings are coming off a bye. Since 2010, Minnesota is 3-9 ATS and SU (25%) when coming off a bye, with the Over hitting in eight of those games (66.7%).

FOX Bet currently has Arizona as a 3.5-point underdog at the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday.

Bengals should cover against the Browns

After a slow start to the season, the Cincinnati Bengals improved to 4-3 SU (57.1%) and 5-2 ATS (71.4%) after a 35-17 victory against the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend. This Sunday they’ll take on the Cleveland Browns as three-point road favorites according to FOX Bet. Despite historic struggles against AFC North opponents, the Bengals are 9-4 ATS (69.2%) in regular-season games on the road against division opponents since 2018, with the under hitting in seven of those games (53.8%). 

Joe Burrow also has some trends that point towards betting on the Bengals to cover, as he’s 4-2 ATS and SU (66.7%) as a starter when a road favorite in his career. As an overall favorite in the regular season, he’s 9-6 ATS (60%) and 10-5 SU (66.7%) in such situations. 

Furthermore, Cincinnati is 12-4 ATS (75%) and 8-8 SU (50%) against the Browns since 2014. 

Giants should cover against Seahawks

The New York Giants have arguably been the most surprising team of the season, going a whopping 6-1 ATS and SU (85.7%) this year. Despite winning as three-point underdogs last week against the Jaguars, FOX Bet and sportsbooks across the country have the G-Men as three-point underdogs again this week at the Seattle Seahawks. On top of their hot streak, below are two additional trends that show why we like Brian Daboll’s squad to cover again this week: 

  • Giants are 21-10 ATS (67.7%) as road underdogs since 2018
  • Giants are 20-15 ATS (57.1%) and 13-22 SU (37.1%) as underdogs since 2020, with the under hitting in 24 of those games (68.6%)
  • Daniel Jones is 13-4 ATS (76.5%) as a starter when a road underdog in his career

Titans should cover against Texans

Similar to the Bengals, the Tennessee Titans got off to a slow 0-2 start but have bounced back and won four games in a row. This week they take on the Houston Texans as 2.5-point favorites in Houston according to FOX Bet. We like Mike Vrabel’s bunch to make it five in a row for various reasons. Under his watch, Tennessee is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 10-3 SU (76.9%) in regular-season games on the road against AFC South opponents, with the over hitting in eight of those games (61.5%). The Titans are also 4-3 ATS (57.1%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) when road favorites against AFC South opponents under Mike Vrabel, with the over hitting in five of those games (71.4%). 

As overall road favorites in the regular season, Vrabel & Co. are a strong 10-4 SU (71.4%), with the over hitting in 64.3% of those matchups. Furthermore, the Texans have struggled as home underdogs, going 4-12-1 SU (23.5%) in such situations since 2018. The over also hit in 58.8% of those games. 

Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for the first time in his career

This last section is more of a nugget than a trend, but considering it’s never happened before we wanted to bring it to the forefront. This Sunday, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay will make history from a gambling perspective, as it will be the first time the Packers will be double-digit underdogs with him under center. FOX Bet currently has Green Bay as 10.5-point underdogs against the red-hot Buffalo Bills, who are 4-1-1 ATS (80%) and 5-1 SU (83.3%) along with being the current Super Bowl favorites across every sportsbook in the country. Rodgers has never been larger than a 7.5-point underdog in a regular-season game, with that happening in a Week 8 matchup against the Rams in 2018. The Packers lost but covered, only losing by two points. In the playoffs, A-Rod has been an eight-point underdog twice, going 1-1 ATS (50%) and 0-2 SU in the 2019 and 2014 NFC Championships. 

From a numbers standpoint, there are strong trends that point in either direction, so we’ve listed them all below for you to make your own informed wager:      

  • Packers are 9-3 ATS (75%) and 8-4 SU (66.7%) as a road underdog in the regular season under Matt LaFleur, with the under hitting in seven of those games (58.3%)
  • Packers have only been double-digit underdogs in the regular season three times since 1994, going 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 0-3 SU in those games
    2017 at Steelers (Week 12, +14)- Brett Hundley was starting QB
    2010 at Patriots (Week 15, +14)- Matt Flynn was starting QB
    2006 at Eagles (Week 4, +11.5)- Brett Favre was starting QB
  • 2017 at Steelers (Week 12, +14)- Brett Hundley was starting QB
  • 2010 at Patriots (Week 15, +14)- Matt Flynn was starting QB
  • 2006 at Eagles (Week 4, +11.5)- Brett Favre was starting QB
  • Bills are 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) and 10-1 SU (90.9%) as a double-digit favorite under Sean McDermott and Josh Allen, with the under hitting in seven of those games (63.6%)
  • Bills are 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) and 8-5 SU (61.5%) in regular season matchups against the Packers since 1974

So are you ready to place some NFL Week 8 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today! 



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