Monday, May 6, 2024

2023 NFL Week 1 odds, predictions: Picks, lines, spreads for every game

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The 2023 NFL regular season is here!

In the season’s first game, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs dropped a game at home against the Detroit Lions on Thursday, 21-20. 

Fans and bettors can catch some of Sunday’s most exciting games on FOX and the FOX Sports app

The Carolina Panthers open up at the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC South Division showdown, a game where No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young will likely make his NFL debut. The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites in that matchup.

Another big game on FOX features the San Francisco 49ers facing off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. San Francisco is currently favored by 2.5 points. The 49ers are tied as the fourth-betting favorite at +1000 to win it all this season. 

The afternoon card features a rivalry as old as time, with Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears taking on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Chicago is currently favored against Green Bay, a rarity if you look back at the last few years when quarterback Aaron Rodgers played for the Packers.

Speaking of Rodgers, the Monday night game will feature the new-look New York Jets as they take the field with him at quarterback. The Jets currently have the eighth-best odds (+1800) to win next season’s Lombardi Trophy. One thing is for sure, watching A-Rod’s mission to get his new squad to the NFL title game for the first time since Super Bowl III will be must-see TV all season.

Also, if you are looking for help on how to throw down a couple of bucks on the season openers, we have you covered with a couple of early best bets from FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz!

So, let’s dive into the lines for every single game for opening weekend (all times ET). 

Is it Super Bowl or bust for Aaron Rodgers & Jets?

Skip Bayless, Michael Irvin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Richard Sherman debate if this season is Super Bowl or bust for Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.

Detroit Lions

DET

Kansas City Chiefs

KC

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Panthers at Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Falcons -3.5 (Falcons favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Panthers cover)
Moneyline: Falcons -188 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.32 total); Panthers +158 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $25.80 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 40.5 points scored by both teams combined

Carolina Panthers

CAR

Atlanta Falcons

ATL

Jaguars at Colts (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Jaguars -3.5 (Jaguars favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Colts cover)
Moneyline: Jaguars -194 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.15 total); Colts +162 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26.20 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX

Indianapolis Colts

IND

49ers at Steelers (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: 49ers -2 (49ers favored to win by more than 2 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -124 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.06 total); Steelers +106 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20.60 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

San Francisco 49ers

SF

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT

Pick via Geoff Schwartz:

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Steelers have won three straight opening weekend games, including two road upsets. In 2021, they traveled to Buffalo and stunned the Bills, winning 23-16. Last year, they opened the year by forcing five turnovers in a win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin always has his team ready in season openers. 

This year they boast a top-tier defense, good offensive skill position players and quarterback Kenny Pickett in his second year. Pickett displayed enough flash at the end of last season to show he has the potential to live up to his draft slot. 

I’ve never seen a team built like the 49ers in my lifetime. The 49ers can make a claim to have the best running back, left tackle, pass rusher and linebacker in the league. Throw in Deebo Samuel as an elite offensive weapon, plus young secondary pieces, and this is the best roster in the league. Hands down. 

However, the 49ers have no great quarterback options at the moment. This is why I’m rolling with the Steelers to cover Week 1.

 PICK: Steelers (+3 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Cardinals at Commanders (1 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Commanders -7 (Commanders favored to win by more than 7 points, otherwise Cardinals cover)
Moneyline: Commanders -355 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.82 total); Cardinals +285 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 38.5 points scored by both teams combined

Arizona Cardinals

ARI

Washington Commanders

WAS

Bengals at Browns (1 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Bengals -1.5 (Bengals favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Bengals -116 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.62 total); Browns -102 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.80 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN

Cleveland Browns

CLE

Buccaneers at Vikings (1 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Vikings -4.5 (Vikings favored to win by more than 4.5 points, otherwise Buccaneers cover)
Moneyline: Vikings -198 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.05 total); Buccaneers +166 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26.60 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB

Minnesota Vikings

MIN

Titans at Saints (1 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Saints -3 (Saints favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Titans cover)
Moneyline: Saints -146 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.85 total); Titans +124 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.40 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 42 points scored by both teams combined

Tennessee Titans

TEN

New Orleans Saints

NO

Texans at Ravens (1 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Ravens -9.5 (Ravens favored to win by more than 9.5 points, otherwise Texans cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -460 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.17 total); Texans +360 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $46 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Houston Texans

HOU

Baltimore Ravens

BAL

How will the Buccaneers fare without Tom Brady?

The “FOX NFL Kickoff” crew discussed how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will perform without Tom Brady and who will win the NFC South.

Packers at Bears (4:25 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Bears -1.5 (Bears favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Packers cover)
Moneyline: Bears -118 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.47 total); Packers +100 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 40.5 points scored by both teams combined

Green Bay Packers

GB

Chicago Bears

CHI

Rams at Seahawks (4:25 p.m., FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Point spread: Seahawks -4.5 (Seahawks favored to win by more than 4.5 points, otherwise Rams cover)
Moneyline: Seahawks -215 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.65 total); Rams +180 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Los Angeles Rams

LAR

Seattle Seahawks

SEA

Raiders at Broncos (4:25 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Broncos -3.5 (Broncos favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Raiders cover)
Moneyline: Broncos -172 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.81 total); Raiders +144 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24.40 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Las Vegas Raiders

LV

Denver Broncos

DEN

Eagles at Patriots (4:25 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Eagles -3.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Patriots cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -180 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.56 total); Patriots +152 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $25.20 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI

New England Patriots

NE

Pick via Geoff Schwartz:

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots 

The Eagles are the rightful favorites to win the NFC again in 2023, but I’m going to fade them in Week 1 against the Patriots. The Super Bowl hangover is real, especially when the Super Bowl runner-ups open as favorites. Even when those teams have won, like the 2017 Falcons, they did not cover the game.  

While the Patriots have not been as strong without Tom Brady, their outstanding defense has continued to play well. Last season, they finished best in the league in weighted defensive DVOA, and I expect the same effort this season. That unit will be ready, with coach Bill Belichick having months to prepare. 

On offense, the Patriots hired former Texans head coach and Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to run the show. This is a massive upgrade over whatever the Patriots attempted to do last season. He was a poor general manager, so he gets mocked for his time in Houston, but his onfield performance was good. The Texans won the division in four of his six seasons, while his time at Alabama saw quarterback Bryce Young win the Heisman trophy. 

The Patriots will have a functional offense this season. There are question marks at wide receiver, which might slow them down, but I still like their chances to cover the five in Week 1.  

PICK: Patriots (+5 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 5 points (or win outright)

Dolphins at Chargers (4:25 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Chargers -3 (Chargers favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Dolphins cover)
Moneyline: Chargers -164 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.10 total); Dolphins +138 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23.80 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 50.5 points scored by both teams combined

Miami Dolphins

MIA

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC

Cowboys at Giants (8:20 p.m., NBC)

Point spread: Cowboys -3.5 (Cowboys to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Giants cover)
Moneyline: Cowboys -168 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.95 total); Giants +142 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24.20 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Dallas Cowboys

DAL

New York Giants

NYG

MONDAY’S GAME

Bills at Jets (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC)

Point spread: Bills -2.5 (Bills favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Jets cover)
Moneyline: Bills -138 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.25 total); Jets +118 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.80 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Buffalo Bills

BUF

New York Jets

NYJ

A few other marquee matchups stick out on the Week 1 card. Here’s a quick look.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 at New York Jets

Josh Allen and the Bills are currently 2-point favorites in their opening game against the Jets. They also come into the season with high expectations, third in the odds to win the Super Bowl at +900. 

Buffalo lost 27-10 to Cincinnati in the Divisional Round last season and will be focused on making an even deeper playoff run. Allen finished the year with 4,283 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. 

Can Allen outduel Rodgers in this star-studded opener?

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at New England Patriots

The Eagles at the Patriots will be another game to mark your opening week calendars for. The Eagles flew high last year with a terrific run to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, their run ended in a close 38-35 loss to the Chiefs, but Philadelphia has a chance to get back to the big game after having one of the best drafts. The team loaded up their defense, complementing their already impressive unit with several players from one of the all-time best defensive units consisting of Georgia players. 

The franchise also agreed to terms with superstar QB Jalen Hurts to the tune of $255 million, making sure the most important position in football is locked up for them for years to come.  

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 at New York Giants

Can the Cowboys finally make a deep playoff run worth mentioning? Or is Dallas doomed to exit stage left in the divisional round again, or worse, the wild-card round? 

The Boys are 3.5-favorites (opened at -2.5) at NFC East nemesis New York in Week 1. An opening-week win on enemy turf could be exactly what America’s Team needs to silence doubters and boost quarterback Dak Prescott‘s confidence as the season gets underway.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Dolphins at Chargers will be another fun contest to watch featuring two high-flying offenses. This will be a battle between Tua Tagovailoa — a quarterback whose season was plagued with injuries in 2022, and Justin Herbert — a player who FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sammy P likes to win MVP

The Chargers are currently favored by 3 (opened at -2, went to -3, down to -2.5, back to 3) in this showdown.

The savviest win total odds for the 2023 NFL Season

The 2023-2024 NFL season starts in September, and Colin Cowherd takes a look at the projected win totals of teams across the league.

COMPLETED GAME

Lions 21, Chiefs 20

Point spread: Lions (+6.5) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Lions win as +235 underdogs (bet $10 to win $33.50 total); Chiefs were -290 favorites (bet $10 to win $13.45 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: Under 54.5 points scored by both teams combined (41)

Detroit Lions

DET

Kansas City Chiefs

KC

Stay tuned to FOX Sports to keep up with the odds as they shift for NFL Week 1!


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