There are two weeks left in the regular season, and the MVP award appears to be headed to Baltimore once more — if Lamar Jackson can just hold on.
The two front-runners entering Week 16 happened to be facing off on Monday Night Football this past week: San Francisco’s Brock Purdy (-200) and Baltimore’s Jackson (+500).
The Ravens went on to pound the 49ers in San Francisco, winning 33-19. Jackson — the league’s unanimous MVP in 2019 — put on a typical performance, finishing 23-for-35 passing for 252 yards and two scores. He also rushed seven times for 45 yards.
Purdy completed 18 of 32 passes for 255 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions. And with that, the MVP odds underwent a major facelift, as Jackson moved to -170 and Purdy stumbled all the way to +1300.
Now, entering the weekend, Jackson’s odds have shortened even more. Let’s take a look.
2023-24 NFL MVP ODDS: *
Lamar Jackson, Ravens: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Josh Allen, Bills: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total) +1300
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total) +900
Brock Purdy, 49ers: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
* odds as of 12/30/2023
Despite Jackson moving from -170 to -200, there is other telling movement on the oddsboard.
While Purdy’s teammate McCaffrey is second, Allen went from +1300 to +800, and Tagovailoa went from +900 to +800, which suggests that if Jackson falters over the final two weeks, and those two quarterbacks shine, they could both still be in the running, along with McCaffrey.
McCaffrey and the Niners travel to face Washington, and Allen’s Bills will host New England.
And of course, Jackson’s Ravens host Tagovailoa’s Dolphins in Week 17, in another QB showdown with MVP implications.
Baltimore is 12-3 and atop the AFC standings. Miami is 11-4, just a game behind, making the matchup even that more critical for both teams.
On Friday’s edition of “First Things First,” former Pro Bowl wideout Greg Jennings said that he’s not concerned with an emotional letdown from the Ravens after their huge MNF win over S.F., mainly because of Jackson’s state of mind.
“There’s too much riding on the line. This team, because of Lamar Jackson, their sights are set on nothing but Super Bowl. And so when he fixates his mind on that, that’s all they’re gonna look at.”
However, while Nick Wright conceded that the MVP award will most likely go to Jackson, he believes the Ravens QB shouldn’t be focused on winning awards so much as reversing his playoff failures, comparing him to a regular-season superstar in another sport, one who has also yet to find substantial success in the postseason.
“Lamar is probably gonna win the MVP this year. If Lamar goes into this postseason, and the Ravens lose their first game — James Harden. Unbelievable, unique, one-of-one regular-season talent. Never quite seen a guy play the way he does. Won an MVP, came close to winning a bunch of ‘em. But as of now, Lamar’s playoff résumé is terrible.
“If they lose their first playoff game and he plays poorly, that is going to be the narrative.”
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