“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 11 of the college football season is here, and I like several ‘dogs to bark this weekend.
I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
Let’s get this thing back on track with some winners.
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 11.
Last week: 2-3 (30-40-1 season)
(All times ET Saturday)
Old Dominion @ Liberty, 1 p.m., ESPN+
The Monarchs have a chance at getting to six wins, as it needs two victories from its final three games.
Asking ODU to go to Liberty and pull an outright upset might be too much, but this is a team that lost by a field goal at James Madison, a field goal to Wake Forest, six points at Marshall and four to Coastal Carolina.
The Monarchs have been a tough out all season, and that should again be the case here.
PICK: Old Dominion (+13.5) to lose by fewer than 13.5 points (or win outright)
Memphis @ Charlotte, 2 p.m., ESPN+
The 49ers come in off their best offensive performance of the season, putting up 33 points and 5.9 yards per play against Tulsa.
That gives them hope against a Tigers defense that allows 28 points per game, including 50 and 42 in the last two weeks.
Of course, there’s a chance Charlotte can’t keep up, but I’ll take the points here.
PICK: Charlotte (+10) to lose by 10 points or fewer (or win outright)
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest, 2 p.m., CW
This is just a play against the N.C. State, a team that has pulled consecutive upsets in games in which it was at least a six-point underdog. Now the Wolfpack are favored, albeit slightly, over the Demon Deacons, who aren’t going to score many points.
But we’ll see how the Wolfpack offense goes this week, as quarterback MJ Morris will not play the rest of the season and will take a redshirt year. Brennan Armstrong, who started five games before Morris replaced him, will take over again.
PICK: Wake Forest (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
No. 15 Oklahoma State @ UCF, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
The Knights got their first Big 12 win last week at Cincinnati, and now they play host to the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State has won five straight, with four of those coming as underdogs, including a Bedlam upset win over Oklahoma last week.
At UCF, at Houston, vs. BYU — that’s what stands between the Cowboys and a Big 12 title game berth.
This will not be an easy game for Oklahoma State, as the Knights nearly beat OU in Norman and are a much different offense with John Rhys Plumlee at QB.
PICK: UCF (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Cincinnati @ Houston, 7 p.m., FS1 and FOX Sports App
The Big 12 wins for the Cougars were by one and two points, and even the win over UTSA was by a field goal, so when they win, it’s not like they have been comfortable victories.
The Bearcats are still in search of their first conference win, and this is a good opportunity for that against another of the Big 12 newcomers. The Cincinnati offense is not a fun watch, but I’m going to hold my nose and take the ugly ‘dog in this one.
PICK: Cincinnati (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
The Roadrunners have been a machine since QB Frank Harris returned to the lineup — five straight wins, four by at least 14 points, and they’ve scored at least 36 points in each of those games.
UTSA should put a big number up on an Owls defense, which has struggled against most of the better teams it has faced this year, even though it has been beaten by double digits only by Texas (37-10) and South Florida (42-29).
PICK: UTSA (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
Duke @ No. 24 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC
The Blue Devils have QB issues, and I just get the sense, in what will likely be Drake Maye‘s final home game, that the Tar Heels will put up a big number. It will be very tough for the Blue Devils to keep up.
North Carolina stumbled against its last two ACC opponents, but this is a great chance for the Tar Heels to get the bad taste out of their mouths and stay alive in the chase for the ACC title game.
PICK: North Carolina (-14) to win by 14 or more points
Arkansas State @ South Alabama
USA has been battling injuries and its season has taken a turn since the blowout win at Oklahoma State. Bowl eligibility is no longer a certainty. Maybe the Jaguars will get right here at home. But Arkansas State has also changed the narrative on its season, winning five of seven, including two straight double-digit wins. Fourteen points feels like a lot.
PICK: Arkansas State (+14) to lose by fewer than 14 points (or win outright)
Texas Tech @ Kansas
I hate fading Kansas here as I think the Jayhawks coaching staff does such a great job keeping this team grounded every week. But this feels like a tough spot, coming off two straight hard-fought wins against Iowa State, the big upset vs. Oklahoma and a home game with Kansas State next week. Texas Tech has been disappointing this season but still a dangerous ‘dog this week.
PICK: Texas Tech (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
Alabama @ Kentucky
UK got blitzed to the tune of 122-61 against three ranked teams before getting a win in Starkville. The Cats may be catching Alabama at the right time though, as the Tide had the emotional win over LSU last week and the comeback vs. Tennessee prior to the idle week. Even with Devin Leary apparently getting healthy, I’m not sure UK has enough offense to score enough and pull the outright upset. But the Cats will be out to put forth a much better result than in Athens a few weeks ago.
PICK: Kentucky (+11) to lose by fewer than 11 points (or win outright)
Michigan vs. Penn State Preview: Big Ten implications on the line
UNDERDOGS MONEYLINE
Wake Forest +120
UCF +120
Charlotte +275
BYU +250 (vs. Iowa State)
Florida +430 (@ No. 19 LSU)
Cincinnati +115
Michigan vs. Penn State showdown best bets Week 11
BEAR BYTES
Now it’s time to have some fun with my “Bear Bytes.”
These little “bytes,” as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.
Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:
Saturday is the first time since Nov. 20, 1993, that there have been two regular-season games pitting a team 9-0 or better vs. a team 8-1 or better. That day, No. 9 West Virginia beat No. 4 Miami 17-14 in Morgantown, and No. 6 Auburn beat No. 11 Alabama 22-14.
In the last 20 years, there have been 18 such meetings; 16 were won by the home team and 15 by the favorite.
Since 1978, 50 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame. Only 12 of the 50 covered the spread, and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites. Sixteen of the 50 lost outright, and 12 of the last 14 have failed to cover dating back to 2011. Louisville failed in this spot earlier this season.
Georgia Tech has covered eight of nine and 11 of 13 as a ‘dog. In seven games as a double-digit ‘dog under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have won four outright.
Since 1978, 13 teams have won home games in consecutive weeks as underdogs of at least 6.5 points, with NC State being the 13th. However, NC State will be the first to play the role of road favorite after pulling those consecutive upsets. Each of the previous 12 teams were either off or an underdog.
Since 2015, Oklahoma State has had 31 games where the spread landed between -4 and +4. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys won 24 of those and have gone 21–7-3 against the spread (ATS). Oklahoma State is currently a 2.5-point favorite at UCF.
Old-guard Big 12 teams are 17-3 against the newcomers this season.
Since upsetting Ohio State in State College in 2016, Penn State has lost 11 straight regular-season games vs. top-10 opponents. In the two home games in that stretch where Penn State was less than a TD underdog, the Nittany Lions lost by four. They lost 21-17 to Michigan in 2021 and lost the other by one point when they fell 27-26 to Ohio State in 2018.
In the last eight games dating back to last year in which Iowa has had a game with a total under 38, seven have gone under with five games seeing 23 or fewer points scored.
USC hasn’t been this big an underdog since 2011 when the Trojans were 15-point ‘dogs at No. 4 Oregon and upset the Ducks 38-35. USC is 3-24 SU in its last 27 games as an underdog.
Top-10 teams this season, when favored by double-digits, are 67-2 straight up. The two losses were both by ACC teams. Clemson lost to Duke, and North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech.
Dating back to 2021, there have been 16 ranked teams at home favored by four points or fewer over an unranked team. One might think that would have led to quite a few upsets, but that has not been the case. Home teams won 14 of the 16 games, going 11-4-1 against the spread. Kansas is a 4-point favorite over Texas Tech, and Iowa is a 1-point favorite over Rutgers.
This is the first time since 2019 that five Power 5 teams have been undefeated entering the second week of November. That year, three of the five — LSU, Ohio State and Clemson — entered the CFP undefeated. We’re assured to have one lose this year, and if another loses, we’ll be at that number of three again this year.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL trending
Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
