“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The 2023 college football conference championship week is here, and yes, I’m betting the Michigan–Iowa point total.
As is the case throughout the season, I’m sharing my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
So for one final time before we head into Army-Navy and bowl season, let’s do this!
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 14.
Last Week: 1-5 (43-53-1 season)
Boise State @ UNLV (Mountain West Championship), 3 p.m. ET Saturday FOX and FOX Sports App
The Rebels place in this game has been questioned all week and that will serve as a powerful motivator. The midseason firing of HC Andy Avalos did wonders for the Broncos, as they got things right on the field and have found their way into this game.
But UNLV has been the better team over the entirety of the season. Heck, the Rebels played Michigan tougher than some Big Ten teams. Barry Odom has done an awesome job here and I like his team plus the points.
PICK: UNLV (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
No. 2 Michigan @ No. 16 Iowa (Big Ten Championship), 8 p.m. ET Saturday FOX and FOX Sports App
I’d also consider laying the points with Michigan, as I’d be surprised if Iowa scored. The Hawkeyes are incapable of doing anything threatening in the pass game, but I do respect their defense.
Maybe there’s a slow start offensively from Michigan off the emotion of last week, and frankly, the stress of the entire last month or so. But the Wolverines tower over the Hawkeyes here and this has the makings of 27-0 or something like that.
BEAR BYTES
Now it’s time to have some fun with my “Bear Bytes.”
These little “bytes,” as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.
Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:
Power 5 Favorites
In the CFP era, favorites in the Power 5 conference title games are 35-7 outright. However, three of the seven underdogs to win outright came in the last two years.
From 1992-2005, four of the 12 double-digit favorites in Power Five title games lost outright. Since then, each of the last 24 double-digit favorites has won outright and only five were decided by single-digits.
There have been eight favorites of 21 points or more in Power 5 title games, seven of the eight covered. The lone one not to cover was Oregon in 2011. That year, the Ducks were 31-point favorites over UCLA and won 49-31. That remains the largest spread in a conference title game.
No. 14 Louisville @ No. 4 Florida State (ACC Championship)
There hasn’t been an upset in the ACC Championship Game since 2011 when Clemson beat Virginia Tech as a 7-point ‘dog. Favorites have won 11 straight, covering each of the last six years.
In the loss to Kentucky, Louisville allowed a KO return for TD, turned the ball over three times in the second half, including at their own 31 and 35-yard line leading to ten UK points and allowed 289 yards, outgaining UK by 114 yards. FSU managed just 224 yards on 3.9 YPP and went 4-14 on 3rd down in the win at Florida.
In eight games vs. top 10 teams as a Power 5 head coach, Jeff Brohm has won four of them outright, including three games in which his team was at least a TD underdog.
No. 5 Oregon @ No. 3 Washington (Pac-12 Championship)
Underdogs have won three of the last four Pac-12 title games. Two of the three underdogs to win outright were Oregon teams coached by Mario Cristobal in 2019 and 2020.
Washington-Oregon is the first AP top 5 matchup in the Pac-12 since 1976 when No. 3 USC beat No. 2 UCLA 24-14.
Since 1978, there have been ten top 3 teams that have been underdogs of more than seven points in a non-bowl game. Those ten teams have gone 1-9 straight up and 3-7 against the spread. The lone win was Michigan over Ohio State last year. The Wolverines were a 9-point ‘dog in that game.
Oregon vs. Washington: PAC-12 Championship best bets, predictions and odds
No. 18 Oklahoma State @ No. 7 Texas (Big 12 Championship)
Favorites have won 12 of the last 13 Big 12 championship games. Baylor’s win over Oklahoma State in 2021 was the lone upset. However, the last four and six of the last eight were decided by seven points or fewer. Each of the last eight and ten of the last 11 Big 12 title games have gone under the total.
There have been 21 different Power Five teams that have won a conference championship game since Texas last did in 2009.
Oklahoma State has won each of its last four games outright as an underdog, including as an 11.5-point ‘dog versus Kansas State.
No. 2 Michigan at No. 16 Iowa (Big Ten Championship)
The Big Ten championship game has not been very competitive lately. The east division champion — Ohio State (2017-2020) and Michigan (the last two) — has won six straight, all by at least 12 points, with the last two coming by 39 and 20 points respectively. It’s a far cry from the first six games, which saw four upsets, including three games where the underdog won by double digits.
Michigan vs. Iowa: Big Ten Championship best bets, predictions and odds
Iowa has played in two Big Ten championship games. The Hawkeyes have scored 16 points in the two games combined.
Each of Iowa’s last seven games have gone Under, with an average of 23.9 points scored in those games. No team has scored more than 14 on Iowa in that span.
No. 1 Georgia @ No. 8 Alabama (SEC Championship)
Eleven of the last 12 SEC title games have been won by the favorite, with Alabama’s upset of Georgia as a 6-point underdog in 2021 the lost upset in that span.
This is the fourth meeting between Alabama and Georgia in the SEC title game. The favorite has not covered any of the previous three games, and all three went over the total.
SEC Championship, Georgia vs. Alabama best gambling odds
SMU @ No. 22 Tulane (AAC Championship)
Favorites have won each of the last six AAC title games.
SMU has lost eight straight games as an underdog, covering only one. Five of the eight came when the Mustangs were 3.5-point ‘dogs or less.
Miami (OH) @ Toledo (MAC Championship)
Underdogs have won four of the last five MAC title games, with three being dogs of more than a field goal. ‘Dogs have also covered six of the last seven, with the last four going Under.
Boise State @ UNLV (Mountain West Championship)
Underdogs have won each of the last three Mountain West Championship games and covered eight of the last ten.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on X @chrisfallica.
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