World Cup Group Scenarios: What does each team need to advance?

AL KHOR, Qatar — We are edging closer to the end of the group stage, which wraps Tuesday. So which teams are in position to advance, and what needs to happen for them to get there?

Here are the group-by-group scenarios for each team in the tournament.

GROUP A

• The Netherlands qualifies with a win or a tie against Qatar.
• If Netherlands loses to Qatar, it can still qualify if Ecuador defeats Senegal. However, if Netherlands loses and Ecuador draws with Senegal, Netherlands will be tied with Senegal with four points and Ecuador will win the group with five. In that scenario, the Netherlands’ loss to Qatar would need to be by one goal in order to qualify. If it loses by two goals, it will come down to total goals scored. If both Netherlands and Senegal have the same number of goals scored, then Netherlands would advance due to defeating Senegal in the head-to-head. If Netherlands loses to Qatar by three or more goals, then Senegal would advance.
• If Netherlands and Ecuador both lose the third game, there are additional scenarios as Senegal would become the group winner. The runner-up spot will be decided by goal difference and then goals scored between the two squads. If both of those categories are tied, then it would come down to fair play — the number of red and yellow cards each team has. If fair play is identical, then it will come down to a random draw.
• However, if Netherlands and Ecuador both win, then both teams will advance and the group winner will be determined by goal difference and then goals scored. Again, if both those categories are identical, it will come down to fair play, followed by a random draw if necessary.
• Ecuador qualifies with a win or a tie against Senegal. If Ecuador loses, it can only qualify if Netherlands also loses, in accordance with the above situations applying.
• Senegal qualifies with a win against Ecuador and will be the group-winner if Netherlands draws or loses. Senegal could still advance with a draw, but Netherlands would need to lose, and again, the above situations would still apply. Senegal cannot qualify with a draw if Netherlands draws or wins. Senegal would not advance if it loses.
• Qatar cannot advance after two defeats.

GROUP B

• England qualifies with a win or a tie against Wales and are only eliminated if they lose by four or more goals.
• If England wins, it will finish as group-winner, and would still win the group if the United States draws Iran. In the situation that England draws and Iran defeats USA, then Iran would top the group and England would be runner-up. In the opposite scenario where England draws but USA wins, USA must win by at least four goals to be the group-winner. Now, if England loses and Iran or USA wins, then the winner of that game would top the group with England and Wales each having four points. In that case, England would need to lose by no more than three goals in order to advance over Wales.
• But if England loses and the Iran-USA game ends in a draw, then every team in the group besides USA would have four points. It would then come down to how much England lost to Wale by as the determining factor of where it finishes. So long as England doesn’t lose to Wales by seven goals, it would finish as no worse than the runner-up in the group. Losing to Wales by three would put England in first and Wales in second, while losing by four or five would switch those standings. Losing by six goals would make Wales the group winner with Iran and England being tied, then coming down to goals scored followed by head-to-head results if still level.
• Iran qualifies with a win against the United States and is eliminated with a defeat. Iran qualifies with a tie, unless Wales beats England, and Iran finishes behind both those countries on goal differential.
• The USA qualifies with a win. With any other result, it is eliminated. The USA can win the group if Wales defeats England, or if that match ends in a draw and USA scores enough goals to win the group based on goal differential.
• Wales must beat England to stand any chance of qualifying, and even then would be dependent on the other result in the group ending in a draw, and a goal differential tiebreaker. If the USA or Iran win, Wales would have to defeat the English by at least four goals to finish ahead of them.

GROUP C

• Poland qualifies with a win or tie against Argentina. Poland can top the group with a victory, or with a draw if Saudi Arabia draws or loses. Poland is not necessarily eliminated with a loss, depending on the tiebreaker, which has goal differential as the first criteria. If Poland loses and Mexico wins, Poland and Mexico would each have four points and be tied for the runner-up spot, with Argentina winning the group. It would then come down to goal differential, followed by goals scored, head-to-head results and then fair-play points. However, if Poland loses and Mexico draws with Saudi Arabia, Poland would then be tied with Saudi Arabia at four points. Again, the runner-up spot would then come down to how many goals Poland loses to Argentina by. If Saudi Arabia wins outright and Poland loses, then Poland is eliminated.
• Argentina qualifies with a win against Poland. It also advances with a tie unless Saudi Arabia wins against Mexico, or, in the case of either other result, it wins the tiebreaker. Argentina is eliminated with a loss to Poland. Argentina would win the group if Saudi Arabia draws or loses. If they and Saudi Arabia both win, the group-winner would come down to goal differential, followed by goals scored, and then head-to-head result. So long as Mexico and Saudi Arabia draw, they would be guaranteed to at least advance. If Argentina draws and Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia, Poland would win the group with five points and Argentina and Mexico would be tied at four points. The runner-up spot would then come down to goal differential and goals scored. If Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia by four or more goals, Argentina would not advance with a draw.
• Saudi Arabia advances with a win against Mexico. Saudi Arabia can top the group if Poland and Argentina draw. It also advances with a tie if Poland beats Argentina, but is eliminated with a tie if Poland/Argentina also tie. If Saudi Arabia draws and Argentina defeats Poland, Poland would have to lose by a minimum of three goals for Saudi Arabia to advance. In essence, Saudi Arabia cannot qualify if they lose to Mexico or if both games end in a draw.
• Mexico qualifies with a win and if Poland beats Argentina. If Mexico wins and there is any other result, a tiebreaker would decide second place. Mexico is eliminated with a tie or a defeat against Saudi Arabia. If Mexico defeats Saudi Arabia by four or more goals, they are guaranteed to advance.

GROUP D

• France has qualified with one game to spare after beating Denmark. They will win the group with a win or draw vs Tunisia, or if Australia does not beat Denmark. If the French lose and Australia wins, goal differential and the subsequent tiebreakers will decide the group winner.
• Australia qualifies with a win against Denmark in its last game and is eliminated with a defeat. It also qualifies with a tie unless Tunisia beats France. If the Socceroos draw and Tunisia wins, goal differential will come into play.
• Denmark qualifies if it beats Australia, unless Tunisia beats France and wins the tiebreaker. Tunisia can qualify if it beats France, but only if the other game is either a tie or a Denmark win, in which case it would still need to win a tiebreaker.

GROUP E

• Spain qualifies with a win or tie against Japan. A win would guarantee them the top spot in group while a draw would also so long as Costa Rica draws or loses as well. If Spain loses, it is eliminated if Costa Rica beats Germany. With any other result in the Costa Rica vs Germany game, Spain goes into a tiebreaker — and has a current goal differential of +7. If Costa Rica and Germany tie, Spain would have to lose by 13 goals to not finish as runners-up.
• Japan advances with a win against Spain and is eliminated with a loss. Japan can also top the group with a victory if Costa Rica draws or loses. If Japan draws, it is eliminated if Costa Rica wins. With any other result, Japan goes into a tiebreaker for second place. The one tiebreaker scenario of note is the event in which Japan draws and Germany wins, as Germany would advance as runners-up over Japan if they defeat Costa Rica by more than one goal. If both of the Group E matches end in a draw, Japan would advance as runners-up.
• Costa Rica advances with a win against Germany and is eliminated with a defeat. A victory would also give Costa Rica the top group spot if Japan-Spain ends in a draw. If Costa Rica draws, it advances if Spain beats Japan but will not advance if Spain and Japan draw. If Costa Rica draws and Japan wins, then “Los Ticos” will need to overcome a goal-difference deficit of 13 goals.
• Germany is eliminated with a tie or a loss. Germany qualifies as the runners-up if it beats Costa Rica and Spain beats Japan. If the Germans win and Spain loses to Japan, it would have to overcome a goal difference deficit of eight goals.

GROUP F

• Morocco qualifies with a win or tie against Canada. Morocco would be the group winner if they win and if Croatia loses or draws against Belgium. If Morocco and Croatia both win, then the top spot would be decided by goal differential and subsequent tiebreakers. Morocco is guaranteed to finish at least runners-up if both games are draws, or if it draws and Croatia wins. Morocco also advances with a loss if Croatia beats Belgium, or if it wins a second-place tiebreaker in the event of a Croatia-Belgium draw. In that tiebreaker, Morocco would have to lose by four or more goals to not qualify. If both Morocco and Croatia lose, Belgium would win the group and the runner-up spot would be decided in a tiebreaker as well.
• Croatia qualifies with a win or draw against Belgium. Croatia will win the group with a win if Morocco draws or loses. If both matches end in a draw, then Croatia will still win the group. If they draw and Morocco wins, then Croatia would be runners-up. Belgium qualifies with a win against Croatia, and wins the group if Morocco draws or loses. Belgium can also qualify with a tie, but only if Morocco loses to Canada and it wins a second-place tiebreaker. If Belgium draws and Morocco wins or draws, then Belgium is eliminated.
• Canada has been eliminated.

GROUP G

• Brazil has qualified and would be guaranteed to top the group with a win or tie against Cameroon, or if Switzerland does not beat Serbia. If Brazil loses and Switzerland wins, the group winner will be decided by goal difference and subsequent tie breakers if necessary.
• Switzerland would qualify with a win against Serbia. It would also qualify with a tie, unless Cameroon beats Brazil and wins a second-place tiebreaker. If the Swiss drew and Cameroon won, then the two countries would each have four points and ensuing tiebreakers would be implemented. Switzerland cannot qualify with a loss.
• Serbia qualifies with a win against Switzerland, if Cameroon fails to beat Brazil. If Serbia and Cameroon both win, then Serbia would need to win by a greater margin to catch up on goal differential.
• Cameroon is eliminated if Switzerland beats Serbia. It can qualify with a win against Brazil if Switzerland/Serbia is a tie or if Serbia wins, but only if it wins a tiebreaker.

GROUP H

• Portugal has qualified and would be guaranteed to top the group with a win or tie against South Korea, or if Ghana does not beat Uruguay. If Portugal loses and Ghana wins, the group winner would be decided on goal difference and subsequent tiebreakers.
• Ghana would qualify with a win against Uruguay. It would also qualify with a tie, unless South Korea beats Portugal and wins a second-place tiebreaker. South Korea would need to beat Portgual by two or more goals for this to happen. Ghana cannot qualify with a loss.
• Uruguay qualifies with a win against Ghana, and takes the runners-up spot if South Korea loses or draws. If both Uruguay and South Korea win, then both teams would be tied with four points behind Portugal. At that point, tiebreakers would be implemented.
• South Korea is eliminated if Ghana beats Uruguay. It can qualify with a win against Portugal if Ghana/Uruguay is a tie or if Uruguay wins, but only if it wins a tiebreaker.

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Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

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