Sunday, December 4, 2022

College football odds Week 4: How to bet Oregon-California

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The No. 8 Oregon Ducks will hit the road for Week 9 of the college football season to face their Pac-12 rival California this Saturday. 

California has struggled this season, losing three-straight games to conference opponents while only scoring 23.3 points per game. 

However, Oregon has been rolling since their blowout Week 1 loss to Georgia. The Ducks most recently defeated No. 9 UCLA by two touchdowns. 

Will California get things together and upset Oregon?

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between Oregon and California from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

No. 8 Oregon at California (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

Point spread: Oregon -18 (Oregon favored to win by more than 18 points, otherwise California covers)
Moneyline: Oregon -1000 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $11 total); California +550 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Total scoring over/under: 58.5 points scored by both teams combined

8

Oregon Ducks

ORE

California Golden Bears

CAL

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Oregon is due for a clunker. No better place for that to happen than at Berkeley, a place where Oregon has a track record of clunker performances. 

The Ducks are coming off an emotional victory Saturday in Eugene. They dominated UCLA in front of a sell-out crowd and in front of a national television audience. This game on Saturday at Cal might be sold out but only if the stadium is 75% full of Oregon fans. You have to create your own energy at Memorial Stadium. After last Saturday’s big win, I think it will be difficult for that to happen for the Ducks. 

Now to the football.

The Cal Bears have always been able to play defense under head coach Justin Wilcox. They rank 34th in overall defensive efficiency; they have an above-average ability to stop explosive plays with their bend-don’t-break defense. They don’t stop the run or pass that well, and they don’t rush the passer well, either. But when it’s time to stop teams in the red zone or on third down, the Bears get it done. 

Oregon’s offense has averaged 49 points per game over the last six contests. But the Ducks have started slow in the first quarters of games and sometimes even into the end of the first half. Cal’s defense is only allowing nine points on average in the first half of games. 

Cal is 3-4 because, despite its ability to limit points, the team can’t score any on its own. The Bears offense is led by a rushing attack where Jaydn Ott has 580 yards with 6.5 yards per attempt. However, those rushing numbers are misleading because he rushed for 274 yards against Arizona. So other than that game, Cal’s rushing attack has been poor. The Bears passing attack is atrocious. It ranks 111th in passing success rate. They cannot be trusted to score points at all, especially against an Oregon defense that’s particularly successful in the first half of games. Oregon’s defense is allowing only 13.5 points in the first half of games. 

The play for me is the first half Under for all the reasons mentioned above. I think both offenses start slow. Wager low scoring through the first half.

PICK: Under 29 points scored in the 1st half by both teams combined

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